Strategy

Unrest in technolgy industry

/ prabasiva / 3 Comments

Lot happened since I wrote my last blog: Steve Job left Apple’s chief executive office; HP came up with radically different business strategy; Facebook is working on a search tool; Google launched Google+; Google bought Motorola Mobility; Google bought IBM’s patents for undisclosed amount; Future of Android after Google’s acquisition of Motorola Mobility appears to be questionable; Microsoft continues to prove its copycat marketing strategy with Mango; It is more than obvious that personal computers migrating to legacy typewriter category; Oracle has the money and may have the desire to buy HP; Scientist found a planet made of diamond; gold deposits in earth were carried by asteroids – keep eye on those asteroid to monitor the gold value in financial market  and few other significant ones.

For each one of these events, I wanted to write a blog but unfortunately after 24th hour of a day, clock is reset for the next day and cycle repeated. And today, due to the heavy rain in Michigan my pre-quarter final cricket game got cancelled and got free few minutes and hence this blog post.

By watching the significant events in recent past, it is evident all the tech dinosaurs are roaming wild to avoid the next big tech asteroid.  In current market, it is a big business puzzle to predict the predator and prey due to growth acceleration rate in terms of consumer adoption in the technology segment. Lots of companies were formed in a garage with a simple idea and some of them were successful by simplifying the original idea and became a giant, and soon, it is worth for billions. Most of the overnight multi-billion dollar companies do not manufacture goods; do not provide a tangible service and hence very vulnerable for next big simpler idea.

Recent trends have been proving the 200 year old economics theory needs fundamental change. The economic value is not only measured by goods and services but by a geo-cosmic fiber created by invisible social network.

Dominant player in the technology company map is rapidly changing and player who is of size of a continent soon becomes unnoticeable island and vice-versa.  All recent activities in the technology segment are all about positioning to the uncharted journey of consumer trends. We wish we have a magic lens to preview the future but we don’t. We understand and agree no tool or process or person can predict the future precisely but people are capable of approximate or define it.

How do we approximate the future?

Keep in mind few concepts.

  • Timing is everything.
  • Learn history and study current.
  • Unleash the core and its dependencies.
  • Connect the dots.

Using the above concepts, how do we approximate the future of disk storage market segment?  It will become a 30-40 page research report to completely answer the question. So, the approach is to scratch the surface to provide an idea how to approximate the future with an example.

There are few dominant players in the storage industry like NetApp, EMC, IBM, Hitachi and etc. Today the storage is based on longitudinal magnetic recording or perpendicular magnetic recording. The limitation of this recording methods are competing requirement of read, write and stability. The size of storage unit using this technology ranges from 130 gb – 1 tb in square inch. The next generation recording will be based on shingled magnetic recording, bit patterned recording or thermally-assisted recording or combination of bit patterned and thermally assisted and over comes the limitation in the current recording methods. The storage unit size will range from 2 – 10 tb in square inch.

All the current, future magnetic and thermal recording is done by set of semiconductors. There are set of companies manufacture those semiconductors that are used in manufacturing the storage units. The trends of semiconductors are based on the advancement in the quantum physics and solid state physics. The trends of the solid state physics can be studied by research made in academia by monitoring the paper published in journals and forums (like carbon based semiconductors are emerging and future electronic devices like iPad will have almost zero mass and can be folded and kept inside a shirt pocket).  Connect all the above to trends of associated technology (quantum computing), problems faced by end users, problem introduced by the associated new technology trends, and etc. Being exhaustive in each step stated above will approximate the future of the storage industry.

All the current tech giants are performing the similar studies to define or approximate the future. They are defining their merger and acquisition strategy, corporate strategy, business strategy, collaborative strategy and competitive strategy. It has become more challenging due to fundamental change in economic valuation and hence the unreset in technology industry.

Time only can answer the actual results of these strategies of technology giants.

I wish I had more time to write less in this post.

Google’s Nexus One

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The next generation computation devices are lurking around in TED as sixth sense devices and labs are experimenting contact lens devices to present the most relevant information in real-time with out manually seeking. The devices will search for relevancy and the present the information to the user. It is very similar to Terminator movie (please watch video carefully at 2.13)  where the aliens receive the most relevant information for the given circumstance. The future devices will make the information readily available based on our circumstance, situation, and mood.  Well, it is not science fiction any more and it will soon become a  reality.

For those future devices, which are currently in experimental labs, the key component is an information gateway. Information gateway will seek  relevant information for each user based on location, mood, and circumstance.  The information gateway are nothing but the next generation smart phones. These information gateway will replace personal usage of PCs and laptops.

Google strategy team stuck a good balance to compete in the current market with Apple iPhone, RIM’s blackberry and laid basic foundation for information gateway market.  Google launched Nexus one as their phone product today to consumer using Android operating system. Nexus one provides easy integration for all social networking tools and techniques. There are more detail comparison done between Nexus one and iPhone and this article focus is to study Google’s strategy and it’s alignment for future technology evolution.

Google’s strategy to provide options to consumer to select the service providers  invites more customer base. However, I’m not excited about its  pricing strategy. The device cost around $520 per unit. The pricing strategy will not let current iPhone users to migrate to Nexus one and also blackberry users will not quickly migrate to Nexus one since it does not focus more on running business application (like VIN locator, inventory management and etc).

Nexus one is an another great thing for Google but the unit price needs to come down..

Bright Future for Auto-Industry

/ prabasiva / 2 Comments

Simplifying a complex problem by breaking into small solvable parts and using knowledge learned in a driving school during a fatal accident are simplification and abstraction techniques widely used in a practical  world. Have you ever noticed the behavior of a person during  a fatal accident? During an accident, provided the person is not seriously injured and able to think to their capacity, the capacity (volume) and capability (strength) of the person is fully utilized to face and over come the situation. The capacity, capability and the effective utilization of it during the crisis or fatal accident increases exponentially.  If some one deeply think about why most of the people become effective during the crisis is due to extreme focus the brain forces itself to get over the situation. That is ultimatum for some of existing meditation techniques and the same reason why some of the adventures sports like rock climbing are very attractive. It is a kind of enforcement mind brings to mind itself. But at the same time, mind does not perform the strategic analysis  to its best during the crisis mode and that is the same reason why the best supreme court lawyer hires another lawyer when they face a crisis.

How this is relevant to current auto industry?

Well, GM and Chrysler both have had faced a separate fatal accidents.  Both are utilizing their capacity, capability and utilizing it effectively. When it comes to survival, as Maslow theory in the management suggests, your basic needs becomes top most priority and enlightenment are out of focus.  The decisions and execution made in last few weeks generally would have taken decades in their corporate culture. Executive management totally understand how to move forward. With assistance with auto task forces, concessions with unions, agreement with debtors ,reduction in  dealer network, dropping a brand, focus on fuel efficiency and quality  are good signs for a great recovery.

Why a great recovery waiting for them?

Four years ago, US market sold 17.5 Million units per year. This year, industry is struggling to sell 10 Million units. The average car age in America today is 9 years old.  Car purchase is the second biggest purchase a consumer would make after the American dream of owning a house.  Consumer confidence is the key and it is and it will continue to gain slowly for next 9 months and rapidly after that.  The credit market is far better than it was 6 months ago with enough capital infusion to credit market. Introducing better credit standards, oversight and governance, the credit market is stabilizing. The moment a person believes their jobs are safe, the consumer confidence in stock market, retail purchase, credit market will raise and the consumer is going to donate their 10 years old car to charity and buy the fuel efficient (Hybrid, Diesel, Electric) car. Both GM, Chrysler are making tough choices now and getting  ready to meet the huge market demand in 18 months.

Until then, sit tight and be part of the touch choices and move Detroit to new 2011++ future.

Yes I hear you.., I have not written a blog for almost a month.. that is mainly due to my last few weeks focus on completing  the graduate course on Linear Algebra. I had my finals yesterday and thinking about, should I take Dynamical Systems and Choas theory in summer. It will definetely help to model the current economical situation!!!