Predicting monotonic events are trivial, whereas,  preciously predicting the continuous non-monotonic events are impossible. For instance, , it is possible to predict that the Sun is to arise on east the next day. Well, assuming that our star, the Sun, is not sucked by an external moving black hole (Yes, black holes can move!! and it was recently proved). The probability for a black hole to swallow the Sun on next day is almost zero.  Like wise, preciously predicting continuous non-monotonic events like weather,stock market for next ‘n’ days are impossible.

Any profit organization events are non-monotonic and preciously predicting the organization future is impossible. but, strategist can define it or approximate it.

A strategist or chief architect can shape up a small state and make it as an empire. Strategist lays a strong foundation for growth and road map to flourish. He (or she) uses abstract and vertical thinking skills to study the past, analyse the current, and approximate the future.  Chanakya, was an strategist, who lived 2500 years ago,provided thought provoking ideas to Maurya Emperor Chandragupta and defined strategy to transform the entire kingdom.

Strategy in an organization starts with people. A strategy can be made successful only if the strategy has an exemplary communication management plan.  In communication plan the following questions must be answered..

• Why do we have the new strategy?
• What are the expected results of the new strategy?
• Will we be successful?

- IBM/Tivoli Identity Management
- Oracle Identity Management (or Oblix/COREid/Thor)
- Computer Associates Identity Management (or Netegrity)
- MIIS (Microsoft Identity Integration Server or MMS (Microsoft Management Server) or Zoomit)
- SunOne Identity Management
- Novell Identity Manager
- BMC Identity Management (or Passlogix)

Before any organization implements IDM, it is best practice from program management office standpoint to develop a business case and return on investment.

How to create a measurable ROI for IDM investment?

If help desk operation is expensive in an organization, measurable ROI development is possible whereas if help desk operation is already lean, it is challenging to develop a TRUE ROI for IDM investment.

IDM solution provides holistic solution for compliance and security requirements. Even when there is no TRUE ROI for IDM investment, still it is worth considering IDM for  its elegant user provisioning, user de-provisioning, user management, access management, password management, work flow, single sign on solutions.

The open source products OpenSSO, OpenDS (directory server) supported by SUN provides most cost ( total cost of ownership) effective solution among the solution landscape. Identity managers supported by SUN, which eventually will become an open source product provides all connectors to integrate various directory services and build work flow for custom provisioning and de-provisioning.

Message: If there is no TRUE ROI for IDM, consider OpenSSO/DS/Identity Manager solution before dropping IDM from your technology road map.

On the other hand, when organization require to provide ease of use for its systems in landscape, it moves towards single sign on (SSO) and security architecture principle is one user, one identification. The risk with this approach is, if a system is compromised, the entire systems in the landscape will be compromised.

For each scenario, there is entirely a different identity management solution. IDM includes

• User provisioning
• User management
  • Role Management
  • Audit Control
• Access Management
  • Authentication
  • Authorization
• Directory services
• Work flow
• Federation
• User de-provisioning

The components of IDM aligns to the process steps I laid out for IDM few months ago.

Identity Management solution can be simplified when the existing and must have directory service is extended to use for other areas. That is, when an organization uses active directory services as a authentication scheme for a desktop/laptop/pc and there is no plan to change it, the recommendation is to study how the active directory service can be made available for other areas like authentication of web application, email and etc.

Take aways:

1. Must define the identify management direction based on business strategy (in the context of IDM)
2. Leverage existing and must have directory service
3. Select a product (for instance Sun Identity Management) which integrates with directory service, user management, and open standards for work flow , provisioning and de-provisioning
4. Based on IDM direction, synchronize  the credentials (like email, desktop login, unix server login, mainframe login, HR system login, benefits system login)
5. Manage user entry and exit process in a cohesive manner and automate the creation and deletion of credentials in all areas.

For those future devices, which are currently in experimental labs, the key component is an information gateway. Information gateway will seek  relevant information for each user based on location, mood, and circumstance.  The information gateway are nothing but the next generation smart phones. These information gateway will replace personal usage of PCs and laptops.

Google strategy team stuck a good balance to compete in the current market with Apple iPhone, RIM’s blackberry and laid basic foundation for information gateway market.  Google launched Nexus one as their phone product today to consumer using Android operating system. Nexus one provides easy integration for all social networking tools and techniques. There are more detail comparison done between Nexus one and iPhone and this article focus is to study Google’s strategy and it’s alignment for future technology evolution.

Google’s strategy to provide options to consumer to select the service providers  invites more customer base. However, I’m not excited about its  pricing strategy. The device cost around $520 per unit. The pricing strategy will not let current iPhone users to migrate to Nexus one and also blackberry users will not quickly migrate to Nexus one since it does not focus more on running business application (like VIN locator, inventory management and etc).

Nexus one is an another great thing for Google but the unit price needs to come down..

Social network is integral in today’s sales and marketing for almost all products and services.  Customization of a product or service based on each individual requirement is not a new concept and it has been discussed and implemented in isolation. The challenge faced before was to approximate each individual’s requirements and social network is an approach to approximate individual’s requirement. Once the requirements are understood, social networks are again used to influence individual customers to buy the given product or service. There are quite a few books written to leverage social network to promote and market products and services. To summarize, in today’s challenging market, it is obvious and evident that social network plays major role in selling product and services to consumers and some cases, even to big corporations.

Given this context, current economical circumstances, growth potential, emergence of cloud computing, compliance conformance requirements,

The following IT jobs will have high market demand in 2010..

1. Enterprise Architect – (Thorough understanding of business process management, business strategy, IT strategy, portfolio management, social networking tools ,techniques and its business application and etc)
2. Security Officer/Analyst (Audit, compliance,policy management, Threats from social networking, Identify Management Strategy,proactive incident avoidance – data loss prevention)
3. Network Engineer – (SAN/IPS/BGP/SONET/DNS/Firewall/Load Balancer/NetCache devices/SSL Accelerator/SMTP/SNMP/High availability/Disaster recovery/..)
4. Cloud Architect ( Cloud operating system – like VMVare, Business cloud)
5. Application Architect – (open source technologies,blog – wordpress, blogspot, facebook, youtube, SaaS, twitter, GoogleWave, web services, Rich Internet application – AJAX/Adobe Flex/Microsoft Silverlight)
6. Information Architect (Data Mining, Dataware house, Reporting, business intelligence, text minig, search optimization)
7. ERP specialist (SAP, PeopleSoft, JD Edward, Oracle financial, Banking – Fidelity, FiServ, Shaw, Phoenix, Hartland, and etc) 
8. Vendor/Contract Management ( ITIL)
9. Program/Project Management (PMBOK, PRINCE frameworks)
10.Smart Phone Application Architecture & Design - (iPhone, BlackBerry, etc)

Lately, my former  colleague and good friend, who works for GE now, have been discussing the importance of oral and written communication skills in an executive level job.  During those discussion, it occurred to me that the next generation corporate communication will be much more simplified and tailored to individual audience. An executive from Gen Y, may not have patience to read a document to understand the status of a company or progress of a project.  The type of communication tools and channels will be used by Gen Y executives are yet to discovered but it is  incubating for evolution.

Keeping those thoughts in my mind, instead of using a traditional method like Venn diagram to communicate direct  involvement level in technical components  by an IT organization, I would like to use the  abstract pictures to demonstrate current involvement and transition to a different level by adapting managed service and cloud computing concepts.

When IT organization is  a cost center (it means it does not directly generate revenue for the company), the organization required to focus on technology stack which provides competitive advantage to its core business. It is particularly essential during this challenging economical time to focus on technologies that impacts business bottom line. The IT organization must have no or minimum direct involvement in non strategic technical components.

The figure 1. abstract picture provides current IT direct involvement in four categories. I have seen, still companies have internally maintain and manage payroll systems for its employee. For an instance, if an IT organization is supporting financial service or retail business, there is absolutely no competitive advantage for that organization to manage internal payroll systems. The reason is not just for cost saving, but the key point is focus.

Around fifteen years ago, the options were limited to leverage outsourced payroll service but now, there are lots of options available to receive world class service on common business services. Common business services are, but not limited to, payroll, badge system, email, infrastructure system softwares, infrastructure monitoring, corporate communication tool set, learning and development, pension, benefits,  IT asset management, IT Finance management and etc. These services are readily available from a third party providers as a service. These services are all required for any IT organization but, generally not a differentiator for cost center IT organization.

IT organization’s senior executives and CIO wanted their organization to focus on technologies directly contributes to their business bottom line.  The systems/technologies that  touches the end user of their core business, and the systems directly used to support the business process.

Managed service and cloud computing are two solution available to let the organization focus on differentiator technology and let the partner perform the rest.

Managed service is a concept to leverage partners to provide a pre-term service.  IT organization manages the partner in a SLA level with no or very minimum involvement in solution design. Managed service deals are designed for fixed terms for fixed service portfolio. This deal package limits organization’s agility to fluctuate their service portfolio requirement based on its business needs.

Cloud computing is  an elastic managed service concept and it provides flexibility to scale up or down based on business needs with no prior commitment  on terms and service portfolio.  On cloud computing service offering from various providers like google & amazon, IT organization required to FOCUS on differentiator technologies and manage the rest by managing the SLA but not by technology (technical component)

Fifteen years ago, seeking for useful information in a public domain  was a challenge and where as today, we have the opposite problem.  There are lots of information available on any topic. 

The social networking sites enables the right  information  come to us instead of we seek for it.  But still, filtering the information is a key challenge.  We more often go to search engine like google  for information and filtering techniques in the google helps us to receive the most relevant information quickly.

Recently, I wrote a  job aid/reference  on “How to google effectively” and there are few beneficiary of that document personally stopped by my desk at work and thanked me  for that  job aid. That was signficantly modified by other team members in the organization and published to the entire organization.

We decided that live demonstration on utilizing google search engine using  the job aid  would  give more clarity on usage.  A work shop was scheduled and opened up  to entire organization with the limit of 40 users and it  filled up almost immediately.   I  conducted the work shop to the signed audience from business and IT area on how to google effectively using google keywords  like file type, site, define, “wiTHin qUoTeS”, and etc.

I took a simple scenario (#1), search for presentation material in educational institutes containing our company name. Run the scenario as a novice search engine users and showed the total number of relevant documents returned by google was around 1.2 million documents. Used various google key words and step wise demonstrated how the results can be narrowed down and eventually reached 9 most relevant documents.  In scenario (#2), demonstrated  how to search effectively to understand the basic definition of crowd sourcing, scenario (#3) was to find the patterns registered in core business. Had few more scenarios and explained, in high level, how google works using their pagerank algorithm and the required knowledge level for internet marketing group to increase pagerank of our web sites and eventually to increase the number of potential customer visits to our web sites.

A scenario (#n) given by an audience on how to search satellite images of a used car dealership in America. The scenario is so broad and the criteria required refinement before we jump into  search of  ocean of information.  The criteria was narrowed down just to Michigan. The results  returned as a map data (kml extension file) and these files read by free software like google earth. The kml extension files contained locations of all used car dealership in Michigan with the satellite images. Since I didn’t have google earth installed in my laptop , I could not demonstrated the results back to the audience. The purpose of the write-up is to display the results of the kml extension file and  raise the question if google should consider to directly read the kml extension file in their google maps.

IT infrastructure cost  looked closely for IT cost optimization by every chief information officers. It is essential, particularly during this economical climate, to look the infrastructure cost distribution and study the alternative approaches for cost and competitive advantage. Chief Enterprise architects are directed by CIO and other senior executives to develop an IT infrastructure cost optimization program. To accomplish it, the enterprise architect must understand the high level information of  various components of  infrastructure and develop a technical architectural strategy.  Technical architectural strategy defines the future state and provides a foundation, the blueprint, for the infrastructure/data centre cost optimization program.

For any future state analysis and definition, the current state is studied and understood before a road map is developed to reach the future state.  1. To study the current state, itemize the various components of technical architecture and the service rendered in each components.

Components of technical/infrastructure architecture

• Hardware
  • Servers
    • Distributed
      • WinTel
        • Linux
        • Windows
      • RISC
        • HP-UX
        • AIX
        • SGI
        • SUN Solaris
    • Mainframe
      • MVS
      • AS/400
  • Disk arrays
    • SAN storage
    • NAS storage
    • Backup
  • Network
    • Logical
      • Extranet
      • Internet
      • Intranet
    • Physical
      • Network Appliances (SSL accelerators, Net Cache devices, XML appliance)
      • Network devices (Routers, Switches, VPN devices, Hubs, Firewall, Wireless,Intrusion prevention)
      • Telephony devices (Dialer, ACDs, IVRs, PBX)
    • External Connectivity
      • SFTP drop box
      • VPN Tunnel
      • T1 line
      • ANX
      • OC3/5 internet connectivity
      • Frames/MPLS
  • Desktop
    • PC
    • Laptop
    • Mobile devices (iPhone, BlackBerry, Smart Phones, pagers)
• Software
  • System Software
    • Server operating systems
    • Network operating system
    • Storage operating system
    • Desktop operating system
    • Compilers, Interpreters
    • File system management (VSAM, GFS )
    • Name resolution system (DNS)
    • Email servicing system (SMTP)
  • Web infrastructure
    • Application Server
    • Web Server
    • Portal Server
  • Data Administration
    • Database server – OnLine Transaction Processing (OLTP)
    • Data ware house
    • Reporting
    • Business Intelligence
  • Office management
    • Microsoft Office/OpenOffice
    • Email client
    • Browser
    • Remote login
    • Security – Virus prevention
  • Service Layer
    • Business process server
    • Message broker
    • Connector – database drivers, bridges,
  • Monitoring and control management
    • Service monitoring
    • Device monitoring
    • Compliance management
      • Data Loss prevention
      • Login monitoring
  • Collaboration Management server
  • Document management server
  • Storage Management Server
  • Emergency Management Service
    • Disaster Recovery Management
    • Business continuity Management
  • Enterprise Resource Planning (it will expand based on the core business)
    • Financials
      • Accounting
      • Management Accounting
        • Cash flow management
        • Fund flow management
    • HR
    • Procurement
• Data center Services
  • Power grid architecture
  • Power Distribution Units (PDUs)
  • Backup power -
    • Automatic generators
      • Cooling and backup cooling for generators
      • Fuel capacity and distribution management
  • Cooling and heating
    • Backup cooling and heating
  • Wiring management
  • Rack management
  • Physical security
• Security Service
  • Directory Services
  • Identity Management Services
    • User provisioning
    • Authentication
    • Authorization
    • User management
    • User de-provisioning
  • Network Security
  • Intrusion prevention
  • Firewall protection
  • Layered protection
    • Zoning – web zone, app zone, database zone, messaging zone, Demilitarized zone, file exchange zone

The service offering in each area depends on an enterprise.  Some enterprise has internal teams to provide all these services  and some has outsourced all of them. Mostly, enterprises adopt a hybrid approach with both external service provider and internal teams.  2. Define the future state in terms of strategic objectives like IT simplification, cost optimization, adaptability, agility for new market segment and etc.  3. For each component of the infrastructure, perform a SWOT, cost and new solution analysis and define the road map.

As an IT strategist/Enterprise architect in a corporate America, understanding the cash position and cash flow prediction enables to align the IT strategy to support the over all business strategy. Generally, the business strategy, cash position and cash flow position are provided to IT from controlling or corporate finance or business strategy team.

I wondered, how difficult to study survivability, sustainability, stability of a captive finance and came up with a simple model. The model is broken into sub model and the attachment provides the details on the first sub model. The sub model provides the projection of available fund, accounts payable and accounts receivables.

Please click the excel to view the raw data of the model. Please go to “Results” tab to see the projection of the account’s portfolio.  The excel can also be downloaded from google doc. (Few columns were hidden just to ensure the better reporting)

In  scenario #1, the cash and fund flow of the captive company is shown.  If the general administration cost of the company is 1% of its accounts receivable, then company is not going to sustain in next 36 months for the given initial condition (accounts payable and recivable).  The payables are increasing, receivables are decreasing and fund reaches near equilibrium (steady state). This company will not survive in long run unless the G&A is reduced significantly.

In simple words, the company is spending too much of cash in administrating the loan portfolio. Company must quickly react and for a captial investment company, the company is not attractive unless investment company is an expert in reducing and managing G&A and use this projection as a good negogiation tactics for best bargain. 

In scenario #2, the operating loss of the company is 1% of accounts receivable. There is no HOPE for the captive finance company in scenario #2. The net loss of the company is increasing expoentially. Atleast in scenario #1, there was a hope. The company will incur losses only after 12 months and it can be turned around if the company quickly react to it.

Capital Investment company should not consider the company in scenario #2. The company already bought too many bad papers and it can not be reversed.  It is unmanagable risk unless the external factors like economical growth minimizes the credit losses and residual risk. A miracle need to happen for this company in scenario #2 to survive.

In scenario #3,  the company is paying the debts  aggressively. Company is not circulating the money to offer new loans. The company has a very strong balance sheet. If the company is planning to put themself for a sale, this approach given in the scenario #3 will attract more captial investment companies. For the captial investment companies, the company sits on high equity and steady fund flow. This is a good scenario if the company decideds to shut down (or run down) the business in next 36 months and make huge profit. If you are an employee and if you work for the company in scenario #3, better you float your resume since the company will close the doors after 36 months after making huge profit. There is no investment made in this scenario #3 for growth.

In scenario #4,  the company has very low operating losses, manageble operating expenses (G&A) and has a right mix of investment and payback strategy for both future and debt holders.  The company will be making profit for next 36 months and if the trend continues, the company will be in business for long time.  If you are employee working for this company, make more retirement investment with company’s option/plan. If you are captial investment company, buy this company to thrive. This scenario is a win-win scenario for all stakeholders, investors, management, employees, debt holders.

Auto finance is almost a trilion dollar industry. I believe the companies will be interested to buy a software to study the company status in long run given current situation and various scenarios.

Please post your suggestion on developing a software for this purpose will have scope in auto finance industry market..

Why this key word was taken?

As you may know, I work for a Financial company and credit risk management is the core competency of any financial company. Even though I’m in IT department, being IT strategy Manager/Chief Architect, understanding how credit risk management works is  not required to do my job. However, I believe, to be successful practical Chief Architect, Chief Architect must know what are the core competencies required to run the business and having a basic understanding of those core competencies are definitely a huge plus. So I started my search experiment with Kolmogorov forward equation specific for actuarial analysis, investment stability analysis (for bonds, investment banks etc) for captive finance company or a consumer bank.

Experiment:

Objective:

Search at least A site with simple, understandable explanation of the equation, various components of the equation and how the equation can be used for actuarial analysis (for auto insurance, wholesale insurance) with a simple real time example.

Steps taken:

Used the cheat sheet I created and narrowed down the search to file type (ie. pdf, ppt, xls and etc) site:.edu, .com and etc. When you look for a basic information, I think, searching only for power point is a wise approach. When someone creates a content in power point, it means it is being explained in an executive level or in high level or in a simpler form. The tip is, when you are looking for a introduction information first search for filetype:ppt.

Even then, as google always provides, I got numerous results back. To minimize the results and receive the most apt content for my search, I did exact keywords where ever necessary. Like “Kolmogorov forward equation”, as one word, filetype:ppt, site:.edu and etc.. (There were various permutation and combination I tried)

Observed Results:

In spite of numerous permutation and combination I was unable to receive the search results I was expecting. Finally, it occurred to me that there may be content available from Universities located in Europe. When I narrowed down my search to site:.uk, I got the result what I was expecting.

Conclusion:

It is my recommendation to google team that they should introduce a new key word like “univ” with qualifier like “asia”, “europe”,”na”, “usa”, “UK”.  Had google had a key word like univ with the suggested qualifier, I would be able to get the most appropriate results back for my search.

New Requirements:

• Introduce new key word “univ” and it will search for all universities in entire world
• Qualifier like “asia”, “na” will narrow down the university content search within Asia, North America and etc
• Qualifier like “USA”, “IN” will narrow down the university content search within USA, India and etc.

The problem is, not all University sites have .edu domain.